Can Bublik Win a Grand Slam?

From Rock Bottom to the Top: The Meteoric Rise

Sunday, January 11, 2026. Hong Kong. Bublik dominates Musetti 7-6, 6-3 in the final. Top 10 for the first time in his career. First Kazakh in history to reach this milestone. His 9th career title, the 5th in just 7 months.

Just 10 months ago, the Kazakh was ranked 82nd in the world. Mid-March 2025, after a catastrophic start to the year (3 wins for 10 losses), he seemed stuck. For many, his career was over.

Roland Garros 2025: The Turning Point

Then Roland Garros happened. Arriving as the 62nd-ranked player, Bublik produced the most complete tennis of his career to reach the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam for the first time. His five-set victory over Alex de Minaur and his performance against Jack Draper showed he could go the distance.

Sure, he got demolished by Sinner in the quarters (6-3, 6-2, 6-2), but something had changed. The mentality was there. So was the confidence.

The Magic Summer: 4 Titles in 3 Months

With these four titles, Bublik joined a very exclusive club: only him and Alcaraz won tournaments on all three surfaces in 2025. Sinner and Zverev reached finals on all three surfaces but didn't win everywhere.

This versatility is rare. Very rare. And it's exactly what you need to chase a Grand Slam.

Hong Kong 2026: The Coronation

A week after New Year, Bublik started 2026 as he finished 2025: winning. In Hong Kong, he dominated van de Zandschulp (6-3, 6-3), Chinese prodigy Shang (6-1, 7-6), came back against Giron (3-6, 6-4, 6-2) and sealed it against Musetti, world #7.

"My only goal for this season was to reach the Top 10 and in the first week I won the title and I'm in the Top 10," said an emotional Bublik. "If you had told me that last April I would never have believed you."

From 80th to 10th in less than a year. From 4 career titles to 9 in 7 months. It's just incredible.

Bublik's Assets for a Grand Slam

1. A Formidable Offensive Arsenal

Bublik isn't an average player. The guy has raw talent to spare:

• Devastating serve: In Hangzhou, he didn't lose his serve all week. Aces in key moments, constant pressure.
• Spectacular winners: 36 winners against Sinner in Halle. Winning backhands in tiebreaks. When he's hot, he's unstoppable.
• All-surface versatility: Grass, clay, hard. He wins everywhere. That's a HUGE asset for a Grand Slam run.

2. A Transformed Mentality

The 2026 Bublik isn't the one who declared he "only plays for money." He's matured. Really.

"In late 2022, I changed my mentality. I realized that tennis was one of my childhood dreams," he confessed.

This ability to be "clutch" in decisive moments is exactly what you need to chase a Grand Slam. The 7-2 tiebreak against Musetti in Hong Kong? No shaking. That's the new Bublik.

3. Peak Confidence

Five titles in seven months is huge. This winning streak has transformed his psychology. He no longer shows up as a victim, but as a legitimate candidate.

At 28, he's at the peak of his tennis maturity. Young enough to have the legs, experienced enough to handle pressure. The timing is perfect.

Top 10 Porosity: A Historic Window

The Big 3 Is Gone

For 15 years, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic shared 63 of 73 Grand Slam titles. An overwhelming domination that made any breakthrough nearly impossible.

Today? Federer retired, Nadal too, and Djokovic (38 in May) is at the end of his career. He remains dangerous, but he's no longer the invincible machine of the 2010s.

The New Bosses Are Vulnerable

Sinner and Alcaraz dominate the circuit, that's undeniable. But they're far from invincible:

• Sinner lost to Bublik at Halle in June 2025
• Alcaraz is regularly beaten by the top 20
• Neither has created an overwhelming dynasty like the Big 3

Behind them? The top 10 is extremely open. Zverev (0 Grand Slam despite 2 finals), Medvedev (only 1 US Open), Rublev (never past the quarters)... Nobody monopolizes major titles.

Obstacles to Overcome

1. Two-Week Endurance

Winning an ATP 250 in one week is one thing. Holding two weeks at a Grand Slam, with best-of-five matches, is another story.

Bublik proved at Roland Garros 2025 he could reach the quarters. But he lost 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 to Sinner. To go further, he still needs to improve physically.

2. The Grand Slam Big Guns

At ATP 250s, Bublik faces top 30-50 players. At Grand Slams, he'll have to chain monsters:

• Sinner or Alcaraz in semis/final
• Zverev, Medvedev, Rublev in quarters
• Dangerous players from the first rounds

He'll need to win 7 matches in a row against this caliber. So far, his best result remains the quarters at Roland Garros.

3. Pressure Management

Being clutch in an ATP 250 final in Hong Kong is one thing. Serving for the title in a Wimbledon final in front of 15,000 people and millions of viewers is another.

Bublik has never faced that pressure. Will he handle it when the time comes?

Verdict: A Credible Outsider, But Not Favorite

Favorable Scenarios

Wimbledon 2026 seems to be his best chance. Grass amplifies his serve, and he already reached the round of 16 in 2024. With his current confidence and Halle 2025 title, he can aim for the quarters, even semis with a favorable draw.

US Open 2026 is also an option. Fast surface, favorable conditions for big servers, and he showed in Hangzhou he excels on outdoor hard courts.

Why It Could Work

Three reasons make Bublik a credible candidate:

• His ability to beat the best: He beat Sinner, world #1. He knows he can do it.
• His new winning mentality: 9-7 in finals, 5-0 since June 2025. He doesn't crack in key moments anymore.
• Perfect timing: The Big 3 is gone, the new bosses are young and vulnerable. If Bublik must strike, it's now.

Conclusion: A Dream Become Possible

A year ago, Alexander Bublik was 80th in the world and seemed doomed to obscurity. Today, he's top 10, with 5 titles in 7 months and peak confidence.

Can he win a Grand Slam? Honestly, yes, it's possible. Not probable, but possible. And in modern tennis, where hierarchy is less fixed than ever, that's already huge.

If Bublik continues this way, if he stays physically fit, if he faces Sinner or Alcaraz on a good day, and if the draw smiles on him... then yes, we might see the Kazakh with the underarm serve lifting a Grand Slam trophy by 2027.

The Australian Open 2026 starts in a few days. Bublik will arrive in full confidence, with top 10 seeded status. Maybe it's time to start believing in the fairy tale.