Montreal 2026: Favorites and Predictions for a Masters 1000 Without Sinner, Alcaraz or Djokovic

The Context: A Missing Big 3

The announcement landed last Friday and cast a shadow over the tournament: Sinner and Djokovic withdrew from Montreal, both confirmed the same day by Tennis Canada. Sinner, fresh off his second straight Wimbledon title, explained in a statement that "after carefully considering all the factors together with my team, we have made the difficult decision to withdraw from Montreal" — no specific injury cited, purely a workload management decision after a spring that already included five consecutive Masters 1000 titles and a cramp-induced retirement at Roland Garros.

Djokovic, meanwhile, is prioritizing his preparation for Cincinnati and the US Open after a Wimbledon semifinal loss to Sinner. As for Alcaraz, he hasn't stepped on a court since the clay season: his right wrist, injured in Barcelona in April, already forced him out of Roland Garros and Wimbledon. He's targeting a comeback at Cincinnati, right after Montreal.

Tournament director Valérie Tétreault didn't hide her frustration, pointing to a broader scheduling issue since the switch to an extended 12-day Masters 1000 format for Montreal and Cincinnati — reigniting the debate over top players' workload in the middle of the summer swing.

Alexander Zverev: The New Top Favorite

Alexander Zverev arrives in Montreal in the best position of his career: champion at Roland Garros (his first Grand Slam title) and runner-up at Wimbledon against Sinner in four sets. He's currently World No. 2, and with the top trio absent, he naturally becomes the tournament's headliner.

Our free tennis prediction algorithm ranks him as the top favorite, but far from a dominant one. His best season yet and renewed confidence work in his favor, but the Wimbledon-to-Montreal turnaround and a deep field behind him (Auger-Aliassime, Shelton, Medvedev) cap our tennis predictions at a 32% probability — well below the usual standard for a clear Masters 1000 favorite.

The Scenarios for Montreal 2026

Our tennis prediction algorithm identifies three possible outcomes for this unusual tournament:

Scenario A: Zverev Confirms (35% probability)
Riding his summer momentum, Zverev handles the Montreal heat well and wins a deep but Big-3-free draw. It would be his first hard-court Masters 1000 title in a long time.

Scenario B: Total Chaos (45% probability)
With such an open draw, the usual rankings logic falls apart. Auger-Aliassime carried by his home crowd, Shelton in power mode, or a new-generation player (Jodar, Fonseca, Mensik) causing an upset. Our tennis prediction algorithm gives this collective scenario a higher combined probability than Zverev alone.

Scenario C: Complete Surprise (20%)
A player outside the top 10 takes advantage of the draw to pull off an upset, just like Popyrin in 2024 or Carreño Busta in 2022 — this tournament has a long history of unexpected champions.

Felix Auger-Aliassime: The Hometown Favorite

You can't talk about Montreal without mentioning Felix Auger-Aliassime. The 25-year-old Canadian, World No. 4 and already a multiple-title winner in late 2025, will play in front of a home crowd fully behind him. The tournament has also given him a favorable spot in the draw as a top seed.

Our free tennis prediction algorithm ranks him as the second favorite with a 13% probability. Home-court pressure can cut both ways, but his current level of play makes him a very serious outsider — nearly a co-favorite behind Zverev.

Ben Shelton: The Defending Champion

Ben Shelton defends the title he won last year in Toronto (the men's event alternates host cities between Montreal and Toronto each year). His cannon serve and explosive game are perfectly suited to fast North American hard courts, his best surface.

A perfect profile for this surface, according to our tennis prediction algorithm. Another title would cement his place in the top 5 — our tennis predictions give him an 11% probability.

Rafael Jodar: The Breakout Continues

Already flagged by our algorithm at Rome and Roland Garros, Rafael Jodar keeps climbing at a remarkable pace. The 19-year-old Spaniard made his Wimbledon debut this summer as the 23rd seed, his first-ever grass-court event, and now sits around World No. 25 after an outstanding first half of 2026: a title in Marrakech and quarterfinals in Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros.

Still a bit raw on fast hard courts compared to clay, according to our tennis predictions (4% probability), but his continued rise makes him an outsider worth watching closely on a draw this open.

How Our Algorithm Calculates These Tennis Predictions

Phantom Tennis tennis predictions don't come out of nowhere. Our tennis prediction algorithm analyzes over 50 parameters in real time for every player before establishing a win probability — a particularly tricky exercise on a draw as open as Montreal 2026.

Key Parameters Analyzed for Montreal 2026

1. Weighted recent form
The algorithm doesn't just count wins. It weighs each result by opponent quality, match context (Grand Slam final vs. first round), and surface. Zverev's Wimbledon final counts for far more than a routine round at Halle.

2. Surface-specific stats
The fast hard courts at IGA Stadium have their own quirks. Our tennis prediction algorithm analyzes serve and return points won specifically on fast hard courts, break point conversion rates, and the ability to handle the heavy, humid conditions typical of a Montreal summer.

3. No dominant history
Without the Big 3, the algorithm has to completely recalibrate its probability hierarchy. Without a runaway favorite, the gap between the tournament's top 6-8 players tightens considerably — meaning lower individual probabilities but a far more unpredictable draw overall.

4. Mental context and motivation
Zverev riding his best season yet, Auger-Aliassime carried by his home crowd, Shelton chasing a title defense... These psychological factors are quantified and built into our calculations.

5. Post-Wimbledon fatigue
Several favorites (Zverev, Shelton) are coming off a demanding London summer. Our tennis prediction algorithm factors in accumulated match load from previous weeks to adjust physical endurance probabilities over a 12-day tournament.

The result: tennis predictions based on hard data, not gut feelings. It's this scientific approach that lets Phantom Tennis maintain a success rate above 70% across the 2026 season, even on the most unpredictable draws.

Final Predictions

Conclusion

Let's be clear: this Montreal 2026 is the most unpredictable event of the season. Without Sinner, without Alcaraz, without Djokovic, the tour's usual hierarchy disappears, and half a dozen players can legitimately claim the title. Zverev heads in as the favorite on paper, but Auger-Aliassime at home, Shelton defending his crown, or a rising star like Jodar could easily flip the script. That's exactly what makes this tournament so exciting to follow — and so hard to predict without solid data.

🎾 Montreal 2026: Room for the Outsiders 🎾