US Open 2026: Favorites & Predictions — Sinner Out, Alcaraz Back, Fils on Fire

The Context: A Draw Reshuffled by Injuries

The shock came in mid-August: Jannik Sinner announces his withdrawal from the US Open with a right knee injury, just weeks after sealing the Wimbledon title. The Italian, who had been on the best run of his career, will miss two consecutive Grand Slams for the first time. His presence in New York had been keenly anticipated — he had won this title the year before and was targeting a historic back-to-back at Flushing.

On the other side of the spectrum, Carlos Alcaraz returns to the tour after four months away with a right wrist injury suffered in Barcelona in April. The US Open champion arrives in New York without a single official match under his belt, and without any warm-up tournament. He was spotted practicing in Cincinnati last week and reportedly looked in good shape — but the unknown factor for a player of his calibre remains enormous.

The result: a Grand Slam that, for the first time in a long while, is genuinely wide open to the next generation. This is no longer "Sinner or the others" — it's a tournament where four or five players realistically have a chance of lifting the trophy on Sunday September 13.

Arthur Fils: The Hottest Player on Tour

Arthur Fils is, as these lines are written, the form player of the men's tour. Less than 48 hours ago, the 22-year-old Frenchman claimed the biggest title of his career in Cincinnati — his first Masters 1000, and France's first at that level since Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Toronto back in 2014. The way he closed out the third set 6-0 against Tiafoe, having lost the second 1-6, says everything about his current mental state.

The stat that has French tennis fans dreaming: the last three Cincinnati champions won the US Open in the same year. Coincidence or trend? Our free tennis prediction algorithm ranks him as the second overall favourite at 22% probability, but Fils's real trump card is that he has nothing to defend in New York — every win is a bonus, one less pressure point in a tournament where his rivals will all have points on the line.

His only real question mark: he has never gone past the second round at the US Open. But his current level, combined with a potentially favourable draw and sky-high confidence, makes him the most credible French outsider Flushing Meadows has seen in years.

Carlos Alcaraz: The Champion Returns Without Match Rhythm

It's impossible not to think about Carlos Alcaraz when the US Open comes around — he's the defending champion and his record at Flushing is exceptional. But the Spaniard arrives in a situation unprecedented in his career: four months without a single official match, no warm-up tournament, and a wrist injury whose true recovery level remains unclear.

Our algorithm gives him 18% probability — third favourite. That's both a lot and a little. A lot, because when Alcaraz is in form, he can do anything and the US Open is his favourite hunting ground since 2022. A little, because returning from a four-month absence on hardcourt without a single competitive match in the legs, at the last Grand Slam of the year, is an extraordinarily bold gamble. Tennis history is full of champions who underestimated the gap between training and competition.

Alexander Zverev: Top Seed, but Questions Remain

Alexander Zverev enters this US Open as the logical favourite on paper: top seed in Sinner's absence, Roland Garros champion this season, world number two. But observers have noted a slight dip in form on the North American hardcourt swing since his clay exploits. He lost to Tommy Paul at Cincinnati, and some of his performances showed the limitations that have historically surfaced at the business end of US Open draws.

Zverev remains a genuine threat, and the five-set format suits him well. Our algorithm puts him at 28% — favourite, but far from dominant. The American hard courts have often exposed his limitations in clutch moments against the very best, and while Sinner is absent, Fils, Shelton and others will create problems of their own.

Ben Shelton: Double Montreal Champion, but Inconsistent

Ben Shelton did something impressive in August: successfully defending his title at the Montreal Masters 1000 without dropping a set against the likes of Fonseca, Mensik and Nakashima. The American is clearly in his best hardcourt form, a surface that suits him perfectly. But there's a significant caveat: at Cincinnati the very next week, he was eliminated in the first round.

The big Shelton question for this tournament is what everyone is asking: which version turns up at Flushing? The one that dominates Montreal without losing a set, or the one that exits Cincinnati in round one? Playing in front of his home crowd can work both ways — extra fuel or extra pressure. Our algorithm gives him 12%, making him a serious but unpredictable outsider.

Felix Auger-Aliassime: Consistency as a Grand Slam Weapon

Felix Auger-Aliassime hasn't won a major title in the North American hardcourt swing, but he has shown remarkable consistency throughout the summer. The 25-year-old Canadian, seeded at the US Open, is technically one of the best-equipped players to go deep in a Grand Slam: big server, solid from the baseline, few obvious weaknesses.

Our algorithm gives him 10% probability. FAA is exactly the type of player who can quietly reach the second week without making headlines, then spring a surprise on a fatigued favourite. His best Grand Slam result remains a semi-final, and US Open conditions — hard, high-pressure, best of five — suit him very well.

Rafael Jodar: The Season's Sensation in Uncharted Territory

He had never played a senior Grand Slam eight months ago. He is now ranked 13th in the world (12th seed at the US Open due to Sinner's absence) and one of the most fascinating stories on the tour in 2026. Rafael Jodar, 19, won his first ATP title in Marrakech in April, reached quarter-finals in Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros, and made a final in Washington this summer. Jannik Sinner himself had signed "What a player" on a camera after beating him in Madrid.

Our algorithm gives him 6% — modest on paper, but remarkable for a player making his senior US Open debut. His aggressive style, composure in pressure situations and meteoric rise (he was ranked 168th in January 2026) make him exactly the profile capable of causing an upset in a draw this open. His best-of-five record in Slams (7-3 this season) is particularly encouraging.

Our Scenarios for US Open 2026

Our tennis prediction algorithm identifies three possible dynamics for this final Grand Slam of the season:

Scenario A: Zverev or Fils deliver (40% probability)
The logical favourite (Zverev) or the man in the hottest form (Fils) handle the draw as expected. Zverev takes advantage of Sinner's absence to claim his first US Open. Fils, boosted by his Cincinnati win and with nothing to defend, completes the most spectacular double of his young career.

Scenario B: The King Returns — Alcaraz (25% probability)
Alcaraz finds his rhythm from the first rounds, and the champion's experience takes over as the draw progresses. His love for the US Open surface and atmosphere could allow him to succeed where others would have stumbled after such a long absence. The boldest scenario, but not the least probable.

Scenario C: The Next Generation Breaks Through (35%)
In a draw this open, the new generation takes the spotlight. Shelton in front of his home crowd, Jodar coming from nowhere to cause the upset, or FAA capitalising on his consistency to claim his first Major. This tournament has a long tradition of unexpected champions — 2026 could add another.